Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Israel prepares for nuclear Iran; western powers concerned over new enrichment work


If Iran does test a nuclear weapon, the Institute for National Security Studies predicts a profound shift in the Middle East power balance. (File photo)
Israel is preparing for Iran to become a nuclear power and has accepted it may happen within a year, the London Times reported on Monday citing an Israeli security report as western powers described Iran’s uranium enrichment work at a new site as a “further escalation.”

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) think-tank prepared scenarios for the day after an Iranian nuclear weapons test at the request of former Israeli ambassadors, intelligence officials and ex-military chiefs, the paper reported.

Israel has so far maintained it will do all within its power to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capabilities, but has shifted its position following recent United Nations’ reports, according to the Times.
The U.N. atomic agency said Monday that Iran is now enriching uranium at a new site in a hard-to-bomb mountain bunker, in a move set to stoke Western suspicions further that Tehran wants nuclear weapons, according to AFP.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran has started enriching uranium up to 20 percent at an underground site at Fordo, near the Shiite Muslim holy city of Qom, and said all atomic material there was under its surveillance.

INSS specialists including a former head of Israel’s National Security Council and two former members of the prime minister's office conducted the simulation study in Tel Aviv last week.

If Iran does test a nuclear weapon, INSS predicts a profound shift in the Middle East power balance.

According to extracts of the report seen by the British publication, experts believe the U.S. would propose a defense pact with Israel, but would urge it not to retaliate.

Russia would seek an alliance with the U.S. to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region, although Saudi Arabia would likely pursue its own nuclear program, the report concluded based on current policies.

INSS specialists believe that an Iranian test in January 2013 would follow increasingly provocative demands by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime, including the redrawing of its Iraqi borders and action against the vessels of the U.S. Fifth Fleet.

“The simulation showed that Iran will not forgo nuclear weapons, but will attempt to use them to reach an agreement with the major powers that will improve its position,” said a passage of the report published by the Times.

“The simulation showed that (the Israeli military option), or the threat of using it, would also be relevant following an Iranian nuclear test,” it added.

Israel condemned intelligence chief Meir Dagan last June after he speculated that Iran may obtain nuclear weaponry.

Conclusions from the simulation have been sent to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Times reported.

Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for exclusively peaceful purposes, has repeatedly said it will not abandon uranium enrichment despite four rounds of U.N. Security Council resolutions calling on Tehran to desist.

While nuclear energy plants need fuel enriched to 3.5 percent, Iran says the 20-percent enriched uranium is necessary for its Tehran research reactor to make isotopes to treat cancers.

Escalation and violation of law

The United States said earlier Monday that Iran’s uranium enrichment work at a new site is a “further escalation” in the nuclear showdown with the international community.

“If they (Iranians) are enriching at Fordo to 20 percent, this... is a further escalation of their ongoing violations with regard to their nuclear obligations,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said.

“We call on Iran once again to suspend enrichment activities, cooperate fully with the IAEA and immediately comply with all Security Council and IAEA board of governors resolutions,” Nuland told reporters.

Nuland added: “This development, given their track record and what the IAEA inspectors have been able to report, it's not a surprise to us what we're hearing.”

Nuland said that when uranium enrichment is raised to 20 percent, “it generally tends to indicate that you're enriching to a level that takes you to a different kind of a nuclear program.”

France also condemned with “the utmost firmness” Iran’s launch of uranium enrichment, labeling it a “grave” violation of international law.

“This is an additional and particularly grave violation by Iran of international law, of six Security Council resolutions” and of 11 resolutions adopted by the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency, said French foreign ministry spokesman Romain Nadal in a statement.

“This new challenge leaves us no choice but to strengthen international sanctions and to adopt, with our European partners and all willing countries, measures of an unprecedented scale and severity.”

The French spokesman reiterated that the Fordo plant had “been hidden for many years from the international community, until the autumn of 2009.”

He added that “the facility’s alleged function has changed over time” and that there had never appeared to be an economic rationale for civilian use.

“The pretext of using uranium enriched to 20 percent to operate the research reactor in Tehran is in no way credible, given Iran’s persistent refusal to consider our offers to provide such fuel,” said Nadal.

He added that Iran’s increased capacity to produce uranium enriched to more than 3.5 percent brings it “considerably closer” to military use.

Germany’s Foreign Ministry called Iran’s new nuclear-enrichment activities a “further escalation” and said it was confident the European Union will raise new sanctions this month on the country’s oil exports.

“As long as there’s no movement on the part of Iran, there are no alternatives to tough sanctions,” the Foreign Ministry in Berlin said in an e-mailed statement on Monday.

“The enrichment of uranium to 20 percent at the Fordo production facility raises growing concern in the global community that the Iranian nuclear program has military objectives,” the ministry said.

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